Jagiellonia 3-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 39%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chorten Arena plays host to Jagiellonia versus Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jagiellonia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Chorten Arena, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pogon Szczecin are 0.60 PPG clear of Jagiellonia in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Jagiellonia 2W, Pogon Szczecin 4W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 64% versus Pogon Szczecin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 58% | Pogon Szczecin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.34 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.023 / defence 1.156 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.945 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.084. Data: 64 Jagiellonia games / 65 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 31%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Pogon Szczecin 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 80% | Pogon Szczecin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Jagiellonia 1.34 / Pogon Szczecin 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.023 / def 1.156 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.945 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Pogon Szczecin xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Jagiellonia 3 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 39% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (9 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 3 | Pogon Szczecin 4W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.02) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.94x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
39%
2.58
30%
3.36
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.52
1.19
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.19 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jagiellonia come into this having played 64 games, going 29W 20D 15L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.50 PPG from 64 outings (28W 12D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jagiellonia's home form reads 16W 9D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 0.91 points per game from 32 outings (7W 8D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.55 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 29W 20D 15L in their last 64 games (1.67 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 28W 12D 24L in their last 64 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.78 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Jagiellonia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 3-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 69%, Pogon Szczecin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Jagiellonia) and 47% (Pogon Szczecin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Jagiellonia's games and 53% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Jagiellonia's matches and 47% of Pogon Szczecin's.
Do Jagiellonia and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Pogon Szczecin 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Pogon Szczecin 3-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.34 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.19 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 30% | Pogon Szczecin 31%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 58%, Pogon Szczecin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.67 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.