Jagiellonia 3-3 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's home record at Stadion Miejski: 3W 3D 1L from 7 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jagiellonia at 1.20 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 58% versus Piast Gliwice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Jagiellonia 42% | Piast Gliwice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.03 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.914 / defence 0.976 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.695 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.221. Data: 12 Jagiellonia games / 12 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 28%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Piast Gliwice 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 57% | Piast Gliwice 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Jagiellonia 1.03 / Piast Gliwice 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.914 / def 0.976 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.695 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Piast Gliwice xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Jagiellonia 3 - 3 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 39% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
39%
2.59
34%
2.95
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
1.86
0.83
Piast Gliwice xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.83 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 4W 4D 4L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 5W 2D 5L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.33 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.60 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
6
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 60%, Piast Gliwice 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Jagiellonia and 0% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 40%; Piast Gliwice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 20% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 0% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 13, as Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.03 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.83 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Piast Gliwice outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.69 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 28%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 42%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.33 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.