Jagiellonia 2-5 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jagiellonia at 1.50 PPG versus Legia Warszawa's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Jagiellonia have won 0, Legia Warszawa 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 74% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 65% versus Legia Warszawa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 54% | Legia Warszawa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.80 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.271 / defence 0.963 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.874 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.140. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Jagiellonia games / 48 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 19%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Legia Warszawa 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Jagiellonia 1.80 / Legia Warszawa 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.271 / def 0.963 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.874 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Legia Warszawa xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Jagiellonia 2 - 5 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 56% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa?
Record (2 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.27x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
56%
1.77
25%
4.05
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.76
0.96
Legia Warszawa xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
3%
32.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.96 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jagiellonia come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 19D 16L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.42 PPG from 48 outings (20W 8D 20L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.21 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jagiellonia's home form reads 9W 9D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 0.88 points per game from 24 outings (5W 6D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.31 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 13W 19D 16L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 20W 8D 20L in their last 48 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.50 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Legia Warszawa won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
5
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 67%, Legia Warszawa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jagiellonia) and 50% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jagiellonia's games and 54% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Jagiellonia 2-5 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.80 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.96 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Legia Warszawa outscored their 0.96 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.27 / defence 0.96 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 19%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Legia Warszawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 54%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.21 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.