Jagiellonia 1-2 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 17 as Jagiellonia welcome Lech Poznan to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lech Poznan are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jagiellonia, 1 for Lech Poznan and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 0–3 with Lech Poznan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan trading profile (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 63% versus Lech Poznan 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 55% | Lech Poznan 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.26 xG and Lech Poznan 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.243 / defence 1.226 | Lech Poznan attack 1.056 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.254. Lech Poznan's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Jagiellonia games / 49 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 30% | Draw 24% | Lech Poznan 46%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Lech Poznan 2.17. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Lech Poznan 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 30% | Draw 24% | Lech Poznan 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Jagiellonia 1.26 / Lech Poznan 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.243 / def 1.226 | Lech Poznan attack 1.056 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Lech Poznan xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Jagiellonia 1 - 2 Lech Poznan.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan part of?
Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 30% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan?
Record (2 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 0 | Lech Poznan 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Lech Poznan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.24) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
30%
3.36
24%
4.10
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.89
1.62
Lech Poznan xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
6%
17.04
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.62 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 18D 18L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 29W 12D 8L from 49 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jagiellonia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 12W 8D 3L from 23 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.73 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 13W 18D 18L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 29W 12D 8L in their last 49 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.39 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Lech Poznan won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Jagiellonia 0-0 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 70%, Lech Poznan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Jagiellonia) and 52% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jagiellonia's games and 56% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 52% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Jagiellonia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Jagiellonia 1-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.26 xG and Lech Poznan 1.62 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.24 / defence 1.23 against Lech Poznan attack 1.06 / defence 0.78, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 30% | Draw 24% | Lech Poznan 46%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 55%, Lech Poznan 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.