Jagiellonia 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cracovia Krakow in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jagiellonia, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 67% and Cracovia Krakow 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 62% | Cracovia Krakow 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.37 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.052 / defence 1.209 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.882 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.203. Data: 21 Jagiellonia games / 21 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 35%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Cracovia Krakow 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Cracovia Krakow 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Jagiellonia 1.37 / Cracovia Krakow 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.052 / def 1.209 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.882 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Cracovia Krakow xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Jagiellonia 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 39% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.88x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.84
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.65
1.28
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.28 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 7W 6D 8L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 8W 6D 7L from 21 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.43 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 1.60 PPG from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.60 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-2 on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Jagiellonia, 60% for Cracovia Krakow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jagiellonia) and 40% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jagiellonia's games and 60% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 40% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jagiellonia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 22, as Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.37 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.28 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.05 / defence 1.21 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 35%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 62%, Cracovia Krakow 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.29 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.