Gornik Zabrze 1-0 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin meet at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gornik Zabrze's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's home record at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pogon Szczecin are 0.60 PPG clear of Gornik Zabrze in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Pogon Szczecin in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gornik Zabrze lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Pogon Szczecin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 44% | Pogon Szczecin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 0.80 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.820 / defence 0.855 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.122 / defence 0.690. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.192. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.690 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Gornik Zabrze games / 50 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 23% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 41%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 4.35 | Draw 2.78 | Pogon Szczecin 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 30% | Pogon Szczecin 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 23% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Gornik Zabrze 0.80 / Pogon Szczecin 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.820 / def 0.855 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.122 / def 0.690 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Pogon Szczecin xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 0 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 23% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 41% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (4 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 2W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.12x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
23%
4.34
36%
2.79
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
1.94
1.14
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.34
23%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 16.4 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.14 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 13D 19L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.72 PPG from 50 outings (25W 11D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.72 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 9W 7D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.62 points per game from 24 outings (11W 6D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.72 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 18W 13D 19L in their last 50 games (1.34 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 25W 11D 14L in their last 50 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.42 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gornik Zabrze won 1-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gornik Zabrze
1
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 46%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gornik Zabrze) and 46% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 33%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 46% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gornik Zabrze defy the odds to beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Pogon Szczecin 1-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 0.80 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.14 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pogon Szczecin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.82 / defence 0.85 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.12 / defence 0.69, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 23% | Draw 36% | Pogon Szczecin 41%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Gornik Zabrze win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 44%, Pogon Szczecin 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.34 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.