Górnik Łęczna 1-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Górnik plays host to Górnik Łęczna versus Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Górnik Łęczna have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna's home record at Stadion Górnik: 1W 3D 3L from 7 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lech Poznan (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lech Poznan have posted 3W 2D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Lech Poznan are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Górnik Łęczna half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Górnik Łęczna 62% versus Lech Poznan 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Górnik Łęczna 62% | Lech Poznan 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 0.74 xG and Lech Poznan 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.710 / defence 1.409 | Lech Poznan attack 0.808 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.229. Górnik Łęczna's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Górnik Łęczna games / 13 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 19% | Draw 29% | Lech Poznan 52%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Lech Poznan 1.92. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Górnik Łęczna 57% | Lech Poznan 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 19% | Draw 29% | Lech Poznan 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Górnik Łęczna 0.74 / Lech Poznan 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.710 / def 1.409 | Lech Poznan attack 0.808 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Lech Poznan xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan?
Górnik Łęczna 1 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 19% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Lech Poznan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Lech Poznan in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Lech Poznan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Górnik Łęczna's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Lech Poznan's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (0.81x) against Górnik Łęczna's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
19%
5.20
29%
3.47
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.14
1.40
Lech Poznan xG
5.20
19%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
5%
21.10
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 16.4 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.40 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Górnik Łęczna have picked up 0.54 PPG on a 1W 4D 8L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 8W 4D 1L from 13 games, 2.15 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 1.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Górnik Łęczna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Górnik Łęczna have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 2.31 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 2.08 scored and 0.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Górnik Łęczna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 1W 4D 8L in their last 13 games (0.54 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 8W 4D 1L in their last 13 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Górnik Łęczna at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Górnik Łęczna at home: 0.83 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Górnik Łęczna or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Górnik Łęczna have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Górnik Łęczna
1
Draws
1
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Lech Poznan?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, Lech Poznan have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2022, when Lech Poznan 3-0 Górnik Łęczna.
Who has won more matches between Górnik Łęczna and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lech Poznan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Górnik Łęczna 50%, Lech Poznan 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Górnik Łęczna) and 50% (Lech Poznan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 33%; Górnik Łęczna have failed to score in 50% of games; Lech Poznan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Górnik Łęczna's recent matches and 50% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Górnik Łęczna's matches and 50% of Lech Poznan's.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Górnik Łęczna and Lech Poznan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Górnik Łęczna and Lech Poznan finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 0.74 xG and Lech Poznan 1.40 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.71 / defence 1.41 against Lech Poznan attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 19% | Draw 29% | Lech Poznan 52%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 62%, Lech Poznan 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 0.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.