Cracovia Krakow 1-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 5W 2D 1L from 8 away fixtures this term (2.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.60 PPG versus Raków Częstochowa's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 69% and Raków Częstochowa 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cracovia Krakow 62% | Raków Częstochowa 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.41 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.123 / defence 1.308 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.984 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.244. Data: 14 Cracovia Krakow games / 13 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 33% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 41%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Raków Częstochowa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 83% | Raków Częstochowa 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 33% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.41 / Raków Częstochowa 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.123 / def 1.308 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.984 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Raków Częstochowa xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 33% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.87
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.01
1.60
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
7%
15.07
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.60 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 4W 4D 5L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 7W 5D 1L from 13 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.85 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Raków Częstochowa in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 7W 5D 1L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.33 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 4-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cracovia Krakow at 83%, Raków Częstochowa at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Cracovia Krakow and 67% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 67% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 67% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cracovia Krakow defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Raków Częstochowa 1-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.41 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.60 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.12 / defence 1.31 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 33% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 41%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 62%, Raków Częstochowa 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Cracovia Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.