Cracovia Krakow 3-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cracovia Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 2W, Radomiak Radom 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 44% versus Radomiak Radom 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cracovia Krakow 38% | Radomiak Radom 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.14 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.013 / defence 0.890 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.039 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.030. Data: 61 Cracovia Krakow games / 61 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 38% | Draw 34% | Radomiak Radom 28%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Radomiak Radom 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 40% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 38% | Draw 34% | Radomiak Radom 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.14 / Radomiak Radom 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.013 / def 0.890 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.039 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Radomiak Radom xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Cracovia Krakow 3 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 38% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
Record (3 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 2W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.01x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.04x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
38%
2.65
34%
2.92
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.09
0.95
Radomiak Radom xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.95 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 21W 18D 22L from 61 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 20W 22D 19L across 61 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.34 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 13W 9D 8L from 30 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 9W 12D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.13 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 21W 18D 22L in their last 61 games (1.33 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 22D 19L in their last 61 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.60 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won 6-0 on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 40%, Radomiak Radom 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cracovia Krakow) and 40% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 47% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 40% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cracovia Krakow run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Radomiak Radom 3-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.14 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.95 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 38% | Draw 34% | Radomiak Radom 28%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 38%, Radomiak Radom 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.