Cracovia Krakow 6-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Cracovia Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Radomiak Radom arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Across 5 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Cracovia Krakow winning.

The historical record gives Cracovia Krakow a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 45% versus Radomiak Radom 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cracovia Krakow 34% | Radomiak Radom 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.48 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.093 / defence 1.245 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.065 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.213. Data: 53 Cracovia Krakow games / 53 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 40%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

Cracovia Krakow dominate the H2H record, yet Radomiak Radom are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Radomiak Radom 20%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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