Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Nieciecza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Nieciecza at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 28 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nieciecza — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Nieciecza have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.40 PPG versus Nieciecza's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Nieciecza 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nieciecza in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 52% versus Nieciecza 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 48% | Nieciecza 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.99 xG and Nieciecza 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.134 / defence 1.230 | Nieciecza attack 0.657 / defence 1.609. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.096. Nieciecza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.609 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Cracovia Krakow games / 21 Nieciecza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 62% | Draw 23% | Nieciecza 15%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Nieciecza 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Nieciecza 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 28 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 62% | Draw 23% | Nieciecza 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.99 / Nieciecza 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.134 / def 1.230 | Nieciecza attack 0.657 / def 1.609 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nieciecza xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 28 February 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 2 Nieciecza.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 62% chance of winning, Nieciecza a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Nieciecza will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Nieciecza?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | Nieciecza 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Nieciecza in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Nieciecza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.13) and Nieciecza's defence rating (1.61), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nieciecza's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.28
15%
6.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.88
0.89
Nieciecza xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
6.79
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
2%
49.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Nieciecza expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.89 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 6D 7L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nieciecza sit at 0.76 PPG from 21 outings (3W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Nieciecza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 5W 3D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Nieciecza have taken 0.30 points per game from 10 outings (0W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 0.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nieciecza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Nieciecza are on 1.05 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Nieciecza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Nieciecza in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while Nieciecza have gone 3W 7D 11L in their last 21 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Nieciecza away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.80 PPG; Nieciecza away: 0.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Nieciecza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cracovia Krakow go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Nieciecza specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cracovia Krakow
0
Draws
1
Nieciecza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Nieciecza?
From 4 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, Nieciecza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Nieciecza last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Nieciecza 0-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Nieciecza?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 50%, Nieciecza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cracovia Krakow) and 50% (Nieciecza).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Nieciecza in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Nieciecza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Nieciecza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 50% of Nieciecza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Nieciecza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 50% of Nieciecza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Nieciecza tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Nieciecza in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nieciecza defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nieciecza beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.99 xG and Nieciecza 0.89 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Nieciecza outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.13 / defence 1.23 against Nieciecza attack 0.66 / defence 1.61, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 62% | Draw 23% | Nieciecza 15%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Nieciecza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 48%, Nieciecza 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Nieciecza's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Nieciecza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nieciecza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.