Viking 3-3 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Viking and Stabaek meet at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Viking have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Viking have posted 5W 3D 2L at SR-Bank Arena — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stabaek have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Viking, 1.40 for Stabaek — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Viking 0W, Stabaek 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 60% versus Stabaek 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 73% | Stabaek 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.29 xG and Stabaek 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.261 / defence 0.955 | Stabaek attack 0.986 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.179. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Viking games / 38 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 63% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 16%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Stabaek 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Viking (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Stabaek 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 63% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG Viking 2.29 / Stabaek 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.261 / def 0.955 | Stabaek attack 0.986 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Viking (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Stabaek xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Stabaek kick off?
Viking vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Stabaek?
Viking 3 - 3 Stabaek.
Where is Viking vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Stabaek part of?
Viking vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 63% chance of winning, Stabaek a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Viking and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stabaek?
Record (2 meetings): Viking 0W | Draws 2 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are Viking and Stabaek in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.26x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.99x) against Viking's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.75
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Viking xG
Total xG
3.40
1.11
Stabaek xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
10%
9.87
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
2%
61.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Viking and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Viking and 1.11 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 8D 10L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (9W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Viking against 1.30 for Stabaek. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Viking's home form reads 7W 4D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.37 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Stabaek
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Stabaek away?
Viking's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.67 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Viking or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Stabaek in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Viking
3
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Viking have won 3, Stabaek have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2023, when Viking 1-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Stabaek?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 67%, Stabaek 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Viking and 67% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Viking's games and 60% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Viking's matches and 67% of Stabaek's.
Do Viking and Stabaek tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking and Stabaek share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Stabaek finished level at 3-3 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.29 xG and Stabaek 1.11 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Stabaek outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.26 / defence 0.95 against Stabaek attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 63% | Draw 21% | Stabaek 16%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Stabaek 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.47 PPG, Stabaek 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.