Viking 1-5 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Viking at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Viking face Rosenborg.

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Analysis

Rosenborg make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Viking's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Viking at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Viking are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Rosenborg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Rosenborg have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Viking against 1.10 for Rosenborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Viking's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) — Viking have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Rosenborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Rosenborg edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended Viking 0–1 Rosenborg — a Rosenborg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Viking half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Rosenborg 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 63% | Rosenborg 73%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Viking surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Rosenborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.75 xG and Rosenborg 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.249 / defence 1.120 | Rosenborg attack 0.986 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.451. Rosenborg's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Viking's projected output up. Data: built from Viking's last 59 games and Rosenborg's last 59.

Result probabilities: Viking 62% | Draw 17% | Rosenborg 21%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.62 | Draw 5.78 | Rosenborg 4.78. The model has a clear lean to Viking (62%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 4.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (2.75 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 62% — clear model lean.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.35 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 80% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 60% (last 10 away games).

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