Viking 1-2 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host ODD Ballklubb at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 outings — a 0.83 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Viking have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at SR-Bank Arena, Viking have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.83 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.17 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. ODD Ballklubb have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Viking at 0.83 PPG versus ODD Ballklubb's 1.17. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 67% versus ODD Ballklubb 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 50% | ODD Ballklubb 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.25 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.026 / defence 1.115 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.028 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.572. Data: 6 Viking games / 6 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 26% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 50%. Fair-value odds: Viking 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | ODD Ballklubb 2.00. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Viking 67% | ODD Ballklubb 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 26% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Viking 1.25 / ODD Ballklubb 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.026 / def 1.115 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.028 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.572 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.80
ODD Ballklubb xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 July 2020 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Viking 1 - 2 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 26% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 50% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Viking and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in?
Viking (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.03x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
26%
3.78
23%
4.33
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Viking xG
Total xG
3.05
1.80
ODD Ballklubb xG
3.78
26%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
17%
6.06
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
4%
22.88
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Viking and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Viking and 1.80 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Viking come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Viking, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 0.83 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Viking are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Early Season
ODD Ballklubb
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have Viking or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Viking
4
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Viking and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Viking see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 67%, ODD Ballklubb 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Viking) and 67% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 33%; ODD Ballklubb in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Viking's recent matches and 33% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Viking's matches and 67% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Viking and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ODD Ballklubb edge out Viking 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Viking 1-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.25 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.80 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.03 / defence 0.96, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 26% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 50%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 50%, ODD Ballklubb 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 0.83 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.