Viking 1-4 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lillestrom make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Thursday 16 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Viking's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Viking at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Viking are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Viking's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) — Viking have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Lillestrom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Viking have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Lillestrom managing 1 and 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Viking 3–1 Lillestrom — a Viking win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Viking and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Lillestrom 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 63% | Lillestrom 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Viking surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Lillestrom have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.10 xG and Lillestrom 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.087 / defence 0.869 | Lillestrom attack 0.833 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.385. Data: built from Viking's last 37 games and Lillestrom's last 37.
Result probabilities: Viking 38% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 32%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.66 | Draw 3.35 | Lillestrom 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Viking 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Viking 80% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 8 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 38% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Viking 1.10 / Lillestrom 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.087 / def 0.869 | Lillestrom attack 0.833 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Viking (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lillestrom xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Viking vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does Viking vs Lillestrom kick off?
Viking vs Lillestrom kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 16 May 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Lillestrom?
Viking 1 - 4 Lillestrom.
Where is Viking vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Lillestrom part of?
Viking vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 8) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 38% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Viking and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Viking vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Viking's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.83x) against Viking's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Viking's last 37 games and Lillestrom's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.35
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Viking xG
Total xG
2.10
1.00
Lillestrom xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Viking vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Viking and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Viking and 1.00 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Viking's recent record stands at 27W 12D 21L from 60 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 22L across 60 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Viking against 1.60 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Viking have managed 15W 7D 8L from their last 30 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 11W 6D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.63 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
Viking (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Viking
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Viking vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are Viking and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 29W 9D 22L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Lillestrom away?
Viking's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.73 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Viking and Lillestrom, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Viking have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 5-1 Lillestrom on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Viking
0
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Viking vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Lillestrom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Viking have won 8, Lillestrom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Viking 3-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Lillestrom?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Viking, 60% for Lillestrom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Viking and 63% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Viking vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Viking and Lillestrom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Viking's games and 60% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Viking and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Viking's matches and 63% of Lillestrom's.
Do Viking and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Viking's recent matches and 70% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Viking 1-4 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.10 xG and Lillestrom 1.00 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Lillestrom outscored their 1.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against Lillestrom attack 0.83 / defence 0.80, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 38% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 32%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 63%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.55 PPG, Lillestrom 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.