Valerenga 1-2 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Molde travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Intility Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have recorded 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Molde have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Molde's 3.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Valerenga's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Valerenga, 1 for Molde and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Molde winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Molde in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 63% versus Molde 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 59% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.40 xG and Molde 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.182 / defence 1.097 | Molde attack 1.316 / defence 0.658. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.466. Molde's defence strength of 0.658 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — the away xG of 2.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Valerenga games / 59 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 25% | Draw 21% | Molde 54%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 4.00 | Draw 4.76 | Molde 1.85. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral: Valerenga 30% | Molde 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 25% | Draw 21% | Molde 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Valerenga 1.40 / Molde 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.182 / def 1.097 | Molde attack 1.316 / def 0.658 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Molde (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Molde xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Molde kick off?
Valerenga vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Molde?
Valerenga 1 - 2 Molde.
Where is Valerenga vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Molde part of?
Valerenga vs Molde is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 25% chance of winning, Molde a 54% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Valerenga and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Molde?
Record (4 meetings): Valerenga 2W | Draws 1 | Molde 1W.
What form are Valerenga and Molde in?
Valerenga (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Molde (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Valerenga's attack at 1.18x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
25%
3.98
21%
4.79
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.52
2.12
Molde xG
3.98
25%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
12%
8.31
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
3%
33.03
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Valerenga and 2.12 for Molde, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Valerenga have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 24W 17D 18L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Molde's form line: 42W 9D 8L from 59 games, 2.29 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valerenga.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 1.97 PPG from 29 outings (16W 9D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Molde have gone 19W 6D 4L from 29 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Valerenga are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.36 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Molde in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Molde in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 24W 17D 18L in their last 59 games (1.51 PPG), while Molde have gone 42W 9D 8L in their last 59 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.97 PPG; Molde away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Molde in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Molde have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jul 2023, when Molde won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Molde specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valerenga
2
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 2, Molde have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Molde 5-1 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 59%, Molde 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Valerenga) and 55% (Molde). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Molde in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Valerenga's games and 55% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Valerenga's matches and 55% of Molde's.
Do Valerenga and Molde tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Molde in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Valerenga 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Valerenga 1-2 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.40 xG and Molde 2.12 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.18 / defence 1.10 against Molde attack 1.32 / defence 0.66, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 25% | Draw 21% | Molde 54%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 59%, Molde 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.