Valerenga vs Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Brann travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brann — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valerenga 1.40 PPG, Brann 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Valerenga: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Brann, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2021, ended 3–0 with Valerenga winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Valerenga and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Brann in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 71% and Brann 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | Brann 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 2.06 xG and Brann 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.057 / defence 1.022 | Brann attack 0.843 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.819 / away 1.238. Data: 45 Valerenga games / 45 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 58% | Draw 25% | Brann 17%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Brann 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 80% | Brann 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 58% | Draw 25% | Brann 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Valerenga 2.06 / Brann 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.057 / def 1.022 | Brann attack 0.843 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.819 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Brann xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Brann kick off?
Valerenga vs Brann kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Intility Arena.
Where is Valerenga vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Brann part of?
Valerenga vs Brann is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 58% chance of winning, Brann a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Valerenga and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Brann?
Record (3 meetings): Valerenga 3W | Draws 0 | Brann 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Brann in?
Valerenga (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Brann (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (1.06) and Brann's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.99
17%
5.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.13
1.07
Brann xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
5.94
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
13%
7.84
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
2%
46.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.07 for Brann, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga's recent record stands at 20W 17D 8L from 45 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 21L across 45 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Brann heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 12W 9D 1L from 22 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brann's away record stands at 5W 5D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.24 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Brann in 69%.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Brann in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 20W 17D 8L in their last 45 games (1.71 PPG), while Brann have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Brann away?
Valerenga's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.05 PPG; Brann away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Brann runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2020, when Valerenga won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Brann specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Valerenga
0
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Brann?
From 9 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 5, Brann have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Brann 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Brann?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 77%, Brann at 54%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Valerenga) and 54% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Valerenga's games and 54% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Valerenga's matches and 54% of Brann's.
Do Valerenga and Brann tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Brann in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valerenga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga and Brann finished level at 0-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 2.06 xG and Brann 1.07 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valerenga fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Brann landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Brann attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 58% | Draw 25% | Brann 17%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, Brann 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Brann's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.