Tromso 1-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 40%, yet in-form Tromso provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tromso vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 10 as Tromso welcome Haugesund to Alfheim Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 June 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tromso have posted 3W 4D 3L at Alfheim Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Haugesund — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Tromso have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Tromso, 1 for Haugesund and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Tromso winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tromso trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Haugesund trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 53% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 43% | Haugesund 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.75 xG and Haugesund 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.981 / defence 1.013 | Haugesund attack 1.225 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.449. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Tromso's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Haugesund have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Tromso games / 40 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 38% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 40%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.63 | Draw 4.55 | Haugesund 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tromso (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 50% | Haugesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 38% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Tromso 1.75 / Haugesund 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.981 / def 1.013 | Haugesund attack 1.225 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Haugesund xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Haugesund kick off?
Tromso vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Haugesund?
Tromso 1 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Tromso vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Haugesund part of?
Tromso vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 38% chance of winning, Haugesund a 40% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Tromso and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Haugesund?
Record (2 meetings): Tromso 1W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Tromso and Haugesund in?
Tromso (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tromso's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
38%
2.63
22%
4.52
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.55
1.80
Haugesund xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
6%
15.87
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Tromso and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Tromso and 1.80 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tromso come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 11D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tromso on 1.17 PPG, Haugesund on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Tromso's home form reads 3W 6D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.53 points per game from 15 outings (1W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.53 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 8W 11D 11L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Haugesund away?
Tromso's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.00 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Tromso or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Haugesund in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tromso's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
1
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 5, Haugesund have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Haugesund?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 53%, Haugesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Tromso) and 53% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Tromso have failed to score in 27% of games; Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Tromso's games and 60% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Tromso's recent games and 53% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Haugesund tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tromso and Haugesund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Tromso and Haugesund drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.75 xG and Haugesund 1.80 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Haugesund attack 1.23 / defence 1.21, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 38% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 40%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 43%, Haugesund 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.17 PPG, Haugesund 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.