Tromso 2-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Romssa Arena to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 16 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tromso have posted 3W 4D 3L at Romssa Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Romssa Arena.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 0.90 PPG clear of Tromso in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tromso lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 48% versus Bodo/Glimt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 57% | Bodo/Glimt 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.17 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.820 / defence 1.010 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.998 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.397. Data: 36 Tromso games / 34 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 29% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 40%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Bodo/Glimt 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Tromso 40% | Bodo/Glimt 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 29% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Tromso 1.17 / Bodo/Glimt 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.820 / def 1.010 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.998 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Bodo/Glimt xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Tromso 2 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 29% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Tromso and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (7 meetings): Tromso 2W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 3W.
What form are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt in?
Tromso (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tromso's attack at 0.82x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.00x) against Tromso's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 36/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
29%
3.39
30%
3.33
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.58
1.41
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
7%
13.87
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Tromso and 1.41 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 10D 22L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.20 PPG from 60 outings (40W 12D 8L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Tromso's home form reads 14W 6D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.00 points per game from 30 outings (18W 6D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.48 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 28W 10D 22L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 12D 8L in their last 60 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.60 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Tromso or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tromso
3
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 3, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 53%, Bodo/Glimt 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Tromso and 60% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 33%; Tromso have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Tromso's games and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Tromso's matches and 60% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Tromso and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tromso defy the odds to beat Bodo/Glimt 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Bodo/Glimt 2-1 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.17 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.41 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Tromso beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.82 / defence 1.01 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 29% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 40%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Tromso win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 57%, Bodo/Glimt 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.57. Form was overturned, with Tromso winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.