Stromsgodset 3-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Brann travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Marienlyst Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brann stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stromsgodset 1.20 PPG, Brann 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stromsgodset, 1 for Brann and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 0–3 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Brann in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 62% and Brann 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 64% | Brann 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.15 xG and Brann 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.103 / defence 0.799 | Brann attack 0.846 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.232. Stromsgodset's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Stromsgodset games / 45 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 65% | Draw 23% | Brann 11%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Brann 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stromsgodset at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 70% | Brann 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 65% | Draw 23% | Brann 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG Stromsgodset 2.15 / Brann 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.103 / def 0.799 | Brann attack 0.846 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Brann xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Brann kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Brann kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Stromsgodset 3 - 1 Brann.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Brann part of?
Stromsgodset vs Brann is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 65% chance of winning, Brann a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stromsgodset and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Brann?
Record (3 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 1 | Brann 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Brann in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Brann (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stromsgodset's attack rating (1.10) and Brann's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
65%
1.53
23%
4.28
11%
8.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.98
0.83
Brann xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
8.95
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
28%
3.51
1%
76.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.83 for Brann, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 12W 14D 19L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 11W 13D 21L from 45 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.11 PPG, Brann on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (8W 8D 6L).
On the road, Brann have gone 5W 5D 12L from 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.24 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Brann in 69%.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Brann in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 12W 14D 19L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Brann have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Brann away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.45 PPG; Brann away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2021, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Brann specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
5
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Brann have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 64%, Brann 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Stromsgodset) and 54% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Stromsgodset's games and 54% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Stromsgodset's matches and 54% of Brann's.
Do Stromsgodset and Brann tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Brann in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Brann 3-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.15 xG and Brann 0.83 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.10 / defence 0.80 against Brann attack 0.85 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 65% | Draw 23% | Brann 11%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 64%, Brann 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.11 PPG, Brann 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.