Start 0-5 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Start at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sparebanken Sør Arena plays host to Start versus ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 27 June 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.66 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 1.013 / defence 1.281 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.669 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.477. Data: 3 Start games / 3 ODD Ballklubb games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Start 47% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 29%. Fair-value odds: Start 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | ODD Ballklubb 3.45. Start hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Start as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Start if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jun 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 47% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Start 1.66 / ODD Ballklubb 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 1.013 / def 1.281 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.669 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Start (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.27
ODD Ballklubb xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Start vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 27 June 2020 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs ODD Ballklubb?
Start 0 - 5 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Start vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Start vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Start a 47% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Start the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Start and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and ODD Ballklubb?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Start and ODD Ballklubb in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Start's attack at 1.01x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.67x) against Start's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Start Win
47%
2.15
24%
4.14
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Start xG
Total xG
2.93
1.27
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
6%
17.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Start and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Start and 1.27 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Pre-Season
ODD Ballklubb
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Start
0
Draws
1
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and ODD Ballklubb?
From 2 meetings on record, Start have won 1, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Start and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2020, when ODD Ballklubb 1-2 Start.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant ODD Ballklubb run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Start.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Start 0-5 at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 1.66 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.27 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Start fell 1.7 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 1.27 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 1.01 / defence 1.28 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.67 / defence 1.07, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Start 47% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 29%, with Start to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.