Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Sarpsborg Stadion to face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Tromso away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Tromso are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sarpsborg 08 FF lead 4W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–4 with Tromso winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% versus Tromso 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% | Tromso 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.27 xG and Tromso 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.828 / defence 1.007 | Tromso attack 1.107 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.305. Data: 34 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 35 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 32% | Draw 27% | Tromso 41%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Tromso 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Tromso 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 32% | Draw 27% | Tromso 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.27 / Tromso 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.828 / def 1.007 | Tromso attack 1.107 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Tromso (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Tromso xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 1 Tromso.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 32% chance of winning, Tromso a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
Record (8 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 4W | Draws 1 | Tromso 3W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Tromso (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.83) and Tromso's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (1.11x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
32%
3.13
27%
3.65
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.72
1.46
Tromso xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
7%
13.41
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.46 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 21W 15D 24L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Tromso's form line: 27W 9D 24L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.50 for Tromso. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (9W 7D 14L).
On the road, Tromso have gone 12W 4D 14L from 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Tromso in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Tromso have gone 27W 9D 24L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.13 PPG; Tromso away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Tromso in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
Draws
4
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Tromso have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Tromso 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%, Tromso 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 47% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Tromso in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 43% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 47% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Tromso in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tromso edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.27 xG and Tromso 1.46 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against Tromso attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 32% | Draw 27% | Tromso 41%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%, Tromso 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 PPG, Tromso 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.