Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rosenborg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rosenborg arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with Rosenborg managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Rosenborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sarpsborg 08 FF and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 64% versus Rosenborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% | Rosenborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41 xG and Rosenborg 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.807 / defence 1.017 | Rosenborg attack 1.109 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.503. Data: 52 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 52 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 43%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Rosenborg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Sarpsborg 08 FF dominate the H2H record, yet Rosenborg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Rosenborg 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41 / Rosenborg 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.807 / def 1.017 | Rosenborg attack 1.109 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Rosenborg xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 30% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Record (9 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 5W | Draws 3 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.11x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
30%
3.30
27%
3.70
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.10
1.70
Rosenborg xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
6%
17.99
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.70 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 52 games, going 18W 15D 19L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.46 PPG from 52 outings (21W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.46 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 9W 7D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.00 points per game from 25 outings (7W 4D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.63 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 18W 15D 19L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 21W 13D 18L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Rosenborg away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.36 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Rosenborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%, Rosenborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 60% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 40% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 60% of Rosenborg's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-3 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41 xG and Rosenborg 1.70 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Rosenborg attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 43%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%, Rosenborg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 PPG, Rosenborg 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.