Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Rosenborg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 10 meetings, with Rosenborg managing just 2 victories and 3 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Rosenborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sarpsborg 08 FF and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% versus Rosenborg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Rosenborg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.828 / defence 0.822 | Rosenborg attack 1.047 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 48 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 31%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Rosenborg 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.48 / Rosenborg 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.828 / def 0.822 | Rosenborg attack 1.047 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Rosenborg xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 43% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Record (10 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 5W | Draws 3 | Rosenborg 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.05x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.88
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.71
1.22
Rosenborg xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.22 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 13D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.38 PPG from 48 outings (18W 12D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.38 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (5W 4D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.50 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 18W 12D 18L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Rosenborg away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.43 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Rosenborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%, Rosenborg 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 56% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 30%; Rosenborg in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 35% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 56% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.