Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-3 jerv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
jerv make the trip to Sarpsborg Stadion to face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
jerv (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, jerv have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0.30 for jerv — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W, jerv 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 5–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
jerv — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% versus jerv 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | jerv 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.43 xG and jerv 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.922 / defence 1.164 | jerv attack 0.670 / defence 1.496. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.367. jerv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.496 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 22 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% | Draw 18% | jerv 15%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | jerv 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | jerv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% | Draw 18% | jerv 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.43 / jerv 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.922 / def 1.164 | jerv attack 0.670 / def 1.496 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.07
jerv xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4 - 3 jerv.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 67% chance of winning, jerv a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and jerv?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | jerv 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and jerv in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. jerv (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.92x the league average against jerv's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 2.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — jerv's attack (0.67x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.64
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.49
1.07
jerv xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.64
18%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
9%
11.32
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
1%
75.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.07 for jerv, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 8W 1D 14L from 23 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
jerv, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 16L across 23 games — 0.65 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sarpsborg 08 FF by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over jerv heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 4W 1D 6L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
jerv's away record stands at 0W 2D 9L across 11 trips, a 0.18 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of jerv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 0.91 scored and 2.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
jerv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and jerv in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 1D 14L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while jerv have gone 4W 3D 16L in their last 23 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or jerv away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.18 PPG; jerv away: 0.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
Draws
0
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, jerv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-3 jerv.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and jerv?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
jerv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 64%, jerv 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 82% for jerv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 27% of games; jerv in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play jerv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 54% of jerv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 82% of jerv's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and jerv tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, jerv in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out jerv 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat jerv 4-3 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.43 xG and jerv 1.07 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. jerv outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.92 / defence 1.16 against jerv attack 0.67 / defence 1.50, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% | Draw 18% | jerv 15%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, jerv 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
jerv's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.65. That form edge translated into the three points. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. jerv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 3.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.