Sandefjord 3-0 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 48%, yet in-form Start provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandefjord vs Start fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sandefjord Arena plays host to Sandefjord versus Start in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandefjord have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Sandefjord Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Sandefjord Arena than their overall form suggests.
Start's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Start are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sandefjord lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2020, ended 1–0 with Sandefjord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Start goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 50% versus Start 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 45% | Start 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.39 xG and Start 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.627 / defence 0.861 | Start attack 0.716 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.446. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.627 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Sandefjord games / 20 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 48% | Draw 29% | Start 23%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Start 4.35. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Start (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 30% | Start 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 48% | Draw 29% | Start 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Sandefjord 1.39 / Start 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.627 / def 0.861 | Start attack 0.716 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.782 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Start xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Start kick off?
Sandefjord vs Start kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Start?
Sandefjord 3 - 0 Start.
Where is Sandefjord vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Start part of?
Sandefjord vs Start is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 48% chance of winning, Start a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Start?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sandefjord and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Start?
Record (2 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 1 | Start 0W.
What form are Sandefjord and Start in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Start (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.63x the league average against Start's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Start's attack (0.72x) against Sandefjord's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.46
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.28
0.89
Start xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Start expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.89 for Start, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Start?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sandefjord come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 5D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Start sit at 0.80 PPG from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Sandefjord against 0.80 for Start. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sandefjord's home form reads 2W 5D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Start have taken 0.40 points per game from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Start's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandefjord are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.10 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Start in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Start in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Start have gone 4W 4D 12L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Start away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.10 PPG; Start away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sandefjord go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Start — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
1
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Start?
From 3 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Start have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Start last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Sandefjord 3-0 Start.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Start?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 30%, Start 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Sandefjord) and 70% (Start).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 50% of games; Start in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Start?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 70% of Start's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Sandefjord's recent games and 70% of Start's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Start tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Start in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sandefjord run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Start.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Start 3-0 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.39 xG and Start 0.89 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Start landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.63 / defence 0.86 against Start attack 0.72 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 48% | Draw 29% | Start 23%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 45%, Start 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Start's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.00 PPG, Start 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Start (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.