Sandefjord 0-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Stabaek at Sandefjord Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 3W 2D 5L at Sandefjord Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sandefjord 1.10 PPG, Stabaek 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sandefjord have won 0, Stabaek 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2020, ended 0–2 with Stabaek winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Stabaek in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 48% versus Stabaek 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 56% | Stabaek 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.31 xG and Stabaek 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.695 / defence 1.348 | Stabaek attack 0.794 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.369. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Sandefjord games / 23 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 34% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 41%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Stabaek 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stabaek are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 30% | Stabaek 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 34% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Sandefjord 1.31 / Stabaek 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.695 / def 1.348 | Stabaek attack 0.794 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Stabaek xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Stabaek kick off?
Sandefjord vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 November 2020 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Sandefjord 0 - 0 Stabaek.
Where is Sandefjord vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Stabaek part of?
Sandefjord vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 34% chance of winning, Stabaek a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sandefjord and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
Record (1 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 0 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Stabaek in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.87
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.77
1.46
Stabaek xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
8%
12.86
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.46 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 8W 3D 12L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek's form line: 7W 9D 7L from 23 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.17 PPG, Stabaek on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 5D 4L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.35 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 8W 3D 12L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 7W 9D 7L in their last 23 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Stabaek away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.09 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2021, when Stabaek won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
2
Draws
3
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Stabaek have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when Stabaek 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 36%, Stabaek 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Sandefjord and 73% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord have failed to score in 46% of games; Stabaek in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Stabaek?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 73% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Sandefjord's matches and 73% of Stabaek's.
Do Sandefjord and Stabaek tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.31 xG and Stabaek 1.46 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.69 / defence 1.35 against Stabaek attack 0.79 / defence 1.38, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 34% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 41%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 56%, Stabaek 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.17 PPG, Stabaek 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.