Sandefjord 2-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 12 as Sandefjord welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Release Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's home record at Release Arena: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.20 (Sarpsborg 08 FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 46% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 56% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.52 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.879 / defence 1.064 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.979 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.152. Data: 39 Sandefjord games / 40 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 28%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 43% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Sandefjord 1.52 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.879 / def 1.064 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.979 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sandefjord 2 - 0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 43% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.49
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.72
1.20
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.20 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 8D 18L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sarpsborg 08 FF sit at 1.13 PPG from 39 outings (11W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.21 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 5W 7D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (4W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.05 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 13W 8D 18L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 11D 17L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.10 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sandefjord
1
Draws
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sandefjord 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 40%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sandefjord) and 45% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 55% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sandefjord's recent games and 45% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-0 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.52 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 43% | Draw 29% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 28%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 56%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.21 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.