Sandefjord 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 38%, yet in-form Sandefjord provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 6 as Sandefjord welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Sandefjord Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Sandefjord have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 0W 0D 5L from 5 Eliteserien matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Sarpsborg 08 FF have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sandefjord carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.80 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 40% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sandefjord 40% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.09 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.786 / defence 1.199 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.649 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.530. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Sandefjord games / 5 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 33% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 38%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sandefjord (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 40% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 33% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Sandefjord 1.09 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.786 / def 1.199 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.649 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.530 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 July 2020 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sandefjord 0 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 33% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-0D-5L in 5 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.79x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
33%
3.00
28%
3.52
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.29
1.19
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.19 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sandefjord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sarpsborg 08 FF sit at 0.00 PPG from 5 outings (0W 0D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sandefjord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 5 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Early Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sandefjord
1
Draws
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sandefjord 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 40%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sandefjord) and 40% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord have failed to score in 60% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 40% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sandefjord's recent games and 40% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Sandefjord 0-3 at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.09 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.65 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 33% | Draw 28% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 38%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 40%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandefjord arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandefjord managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.