Sandefjord 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 2 as Sandefjord welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sandefjord's home record at Jotun Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.60 (Sarpsborg 08 FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 4 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 60% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 65% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.76 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.969 / defence 0.902 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.065 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.272. Data: 31 Sandefjord games / 30 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 50% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.70. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 30% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 50% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Sandefjord 1.76 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.969 / def 0.902 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.065 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sandefjord 0 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 50% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (8 meetings): Sandefjord 3W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4W.
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.97x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.26
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.98
1.22
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
5%
21.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.22 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 10D 26L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Sarpsborg 08 FF sit at 1.30 PPG from 60 outings (21W 15D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.37 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 18W 3D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.52 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 24W 10D 26L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.90 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jul 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sandefjord
1
Draws
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 47%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Sandefjord and 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Sandefjord's games and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Sandefjord's matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Sandefjord 0-2 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.76 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 50% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 65%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.37 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.