Sandefjord 0-3 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Release Arena plays host to Sandefjord versus Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Release Arena, Sandefjord have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Mjondalen have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mjondalen away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Sandefjord, 1.30 for Mjondalen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sandefjord 2W, Mjondalen 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2020, ended 2–0 with Sandefjord winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mjondalen — key trading statistics (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 47% versus Mjondalen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 50% | Mjondalen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.49 xG and Mjondalen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.888 / defence 0.996 | Mjondalen attack 0.904 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.287. Data: 30 Sandefjord games / 30 Mjondalen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 28% | Mjondalen 28%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Mjondalen 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sandefjord 50% | Mjondalen 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 28% | Mjondalen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Sandefjord 1.49 / Mjondalen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.888 / def 0.996 | Mjondalen attack 0.904 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Mjondalen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Mjondalen kick off?
Sandefjord vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Sandefjord 0 - 3 Mjondalen.
Where is Sandefjord vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Mjondalen part of?
Sandefjord vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 44% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sandefjord and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Mjondalen?
Record (2 meetings): Sandefjord 2W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Sandefjord and Mjondalen in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.90x) against Sandefjord's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.57
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.65
1.16
Mjondalen xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
6%
15.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.16 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 8D 13L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Mjondalen sit at 0.97 PPG from 30 outings (9W 2D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Sandefjord against 0.97 for Mjondalen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandefjord's home form reads 3W 6D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjondalen have taken 0.57 points per game from 14 outings (2W 2D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mjondalen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.97 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Mjondalen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Mjondalen away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.07 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Mjondalen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjondalen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 0-3 on 16 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
1
Draws
1
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Mjondalen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Mjondalen?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 36%, Mjondalen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sandefjord) and 43% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 50% of games; Mjondalen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Mjondalen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 50% of Mjondalen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sandefjord's recent games and 43% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjondalen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen beat Sandefjord 0-3 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.49 xG and Mjondalen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Mjondalen outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Mjondalen attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 44% | Draw 28% | Mjondalen 28%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mjondalen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 50%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.17 PPG, Mjondalen 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjondalen win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjondalen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.