Rosenborg 4-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 4 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Viking have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Rosenborg's favour (2.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Viking in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Rosenborg 0W, Viking 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 68% and Viking 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 72% | Viking 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.31 xG and Viking 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.183 / defence 0.936 | Viking attack 1.096 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.334. Data: 50 Rosenborg games / 50 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 20% | Viking 22%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Viking 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Viking 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 20% | Viking 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Rosenborg 2.31 / Viking 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.183 / def 0.936 | Viking attack 1.096 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Viking xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Viking kick off?
Rosenborg vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Rosenborg 4 - 1 Viking.
Where is Rosenborg vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Viking part of?
Rosenborg vs Viking is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 58% chance of winning, Viking a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Rosenborg and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
Record (2 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 1 | Viking 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Viking (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.10x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
58%
1.71
20%
5.11
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.67
1.37
Viking xG
1.71
58%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
10%
10.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
2%
45.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.37 for Viking, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 16D 11L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.72 PPG from 50 outings (25W 11D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.72 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 15W 6D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (11W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.88 scored and 1.52 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Viking in 74%.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Viking in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 23W 16D 11L in their last 50 games (1.70 PPG), while Viking have gone 25W 11D 14L in their last 50 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Viking away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.12 PPG; Viking away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 1-5 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
2
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 4, Viking have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Viking 3-0 Rosenborg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 58%, Viking 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Rosenborg and 67% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Rosenborg's games and 71% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Rosenborg's matches and 67% of Viking's.
Do Rosenborg and Viking tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Viking in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Viking 4-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.31 xG and Viking 1.37 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Viking attack 1.10 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 58% | Draw 20% | Viking 22%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 72%, Viking 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.70 PPG, Viking 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Viking (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.