Rosenborg 2-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Sandefjord at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 3W 3D 2L from 8 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.75 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lerkendal Stadion.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 2W 1D 5L from 8 outings — 0.88 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Rosenborg have the edge — a 0.62 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.88) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 38% versus Sandefjord 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 50% | Sandefjord 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.65 xG and Sandefjord 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.965 / defence 0.905 | Sandefjord attack 0.652 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.469. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Rosenborg games / 8 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 56% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 20%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 50% | Sandefjord 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 56% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Rosenborg 1.65 / Sandefjord 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.965 / def 0.905 | Sandefjord attack 0.652 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sandefjord xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 July 2020 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Rosenborg 2 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord part of?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 56% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Rosenborg and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.09
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.52
0.87
Sandefjord xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
26.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.87 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 5L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sandefjord's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 0.75 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sandefjord away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.25 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Rosenborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
3
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Sandefjord have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 50%, Sandefjord 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rosenborg) and 50% (Sandefjord).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sandefjord in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 50% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rosenborg's recent games and 50% of Sandefjord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Sandefjord 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Sandefjord 2-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.65 xG and Sandefjord 0.87 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Sandefjord attack 0.65 / defence 1.42, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 56% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 20%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 50%, Sandefjord 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandefjord's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.