Rosenborg 1-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Rosenborg, 1.10 for Ham-Kam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ham-Kam in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Ham-Kam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 67% and Ham-Kam 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 73% | Ham-Kam 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.52 xG and Ham-Kam 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.093 / defence 0.866 | Ham-Kam attack 0.918 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.347. Data: 32 Rosenborg games / 32 Ham-Kam games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 48% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 27%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Ham-Kam 3.70. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 48% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Rosenborg 1.52 / Ham-Kam 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.093 / def 0.866 | Ham-Kam attack 0.918 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ham-Kam xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg 1 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam part of?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 48% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rosenborg and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Record (4 meetings): Rosenborg 2W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.92x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.90
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.59
1.07
Ham-Kam xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.07 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 27W 14D 19L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Ham-Kam's form line: 16W 17D 27L from 60 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.07 PPG from 30 outings (19W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 6W 8D 16L from 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.20 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 16W 17D 27L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Ham-Kam away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.07 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
1
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when Ham-Kam 4-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 60%, Ham-Kam 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 63% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 67% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 63% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Rosenborg and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Ham-Kam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Ham-Kam 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.52 xG and Ham-Kam 1.07 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.09 / defence 0.87 against Ham-Kam attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 48% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 27%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 73%, Ham-Kam 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.