ODD Ballklubb 3-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Viking travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 July 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: ODD Ballklubb 1.50 PPG, Viking 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Viking in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for ODD Ballklubb, 0 for Viking and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2020, ended 3–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Viking in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 56% versus Viking 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 61% | Viking 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.30 xG and Viking 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.075 / defence 0.956 | Viking attack 1.221 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.116. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 ODD Ballklubb games / 42 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 58% | Draw 22% | Viking 19%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Viking 5.26. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 60% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 58% | Draw 22% | Viking 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.30 / Viking 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.075 / def 0.956 | Viking attack 1.221 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Viking xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Viking kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
ODD Ballklubb 3 - 2 Viking.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Viking is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 58% chance of winning, Viking a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
Record (2 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 2W | Draws 0 | Viking 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Viking in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.07x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
58%
1.71
22%
4.48
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.60
1.30
Viking xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
10%
9.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
2%
51.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.30 for Viking, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 17W 8D 16L from 41 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 13L across 41 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.44 PPG, Viking on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 10W 4D 5L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 7W 5D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.80 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Viking in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 17W 8D 16L in their last 41 games (1.44 PPG), while Viking have gone 17W 11D 13L in their last 41 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Viking away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.79 PPG; Viking away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Viking runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Viking specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
2
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Viking have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 63%, Viking 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for ODD Ballklubb and 79% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Viking in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 58% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 79% of Viking's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Viking tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Viking in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ODD Ballklubb edge out Viking 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Viking 3-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.30 xG and Viking 1.30 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Viking attack 1.22 / defence 1.28, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 58% | Draw 22% | Viking 19%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 61%, Viking 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.44 PPG, Viking 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. Viking (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.