ODD Ballklubb 3-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Tromso at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 24 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 6W 1D 3L at Skagerak Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.20 xG and Tromso 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.934 / defence 0.890 | Tromso attack 0.967 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.229. Tromso's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 ODD Ballklubb games / 8 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 37% | Draw 32% | Tromso 31%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Tromso 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 37% | Draw 32% | Tromso 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.20 / Tromso 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.934 / def 0.890 | Tromso attack 0.967 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Tromso xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
ODD Ballklubb 3 - 0 Tromso.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 37% chance of winning, Tromso a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Tromso in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. ODD Ballklubb home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.93) and Tromso's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
37%
2.67
32%
3.14
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.25
1.06
Tromso xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.06 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Pre-Season
Tromso
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Tromso won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
4
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Tromso?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Tromso have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-0 Tromso.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant ODD Ballklubb run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tromso.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Tromso 3-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.20 xG and Tromso 1.06 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tromso landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Tromso attack 0.97 / defence 0.78, drawn from 37/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 37% | Draw 32% | Tromso 31%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.