ODD Ballklubb 3-2 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord meet at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sandefjord (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. ODD Ballklubb's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Sandefjord hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 1–4 with Sandefjord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sandefjord have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 48% versus Sandefjord 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 52% | Sandefjord 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.88 xG and Sandefjord 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.846 / defence 0.899 | Sandefjord attack 0.877 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.304. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 ODD Ballklubb games / 49 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 57% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 20%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Sandefjord 5.00. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Sandefjord lead the H2H ledger, but ODD Ballklubb carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: ODD Ballklubb 30% | Sandefjord 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 57% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.88 / Sandefjord 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.846 / def 0.899 | Sandefjord attack 0.877 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Sandefjord xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
ODD Ballklubb 3 - 2 Sandefjord.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 57% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
Record (7 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 2 | Sandefjord 4W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.85) and Sandefjord's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.88x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
57%
1.74
22%
4.48
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.91
1.03
Sandefjord xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
3%
32.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.03 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 50 games, going 20W 11D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 0.84 PPG from 50 outings (10W 12D 28L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 12W 3D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.71 points per game from 24 outings (5W 2D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.42 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 11D 19L in their last 50 games (1.42 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 10W 12D 28L in their last 50 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Sandefjord away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.62 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.71 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-1 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Sandefjord 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 50%, Sandefjord 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for ODD Ballklubb and 71% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 50% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 71% of Sandefjord's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Sandefjord tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ODD Ballklubb edge out Sandefjord 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Sandefjord 3-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.88 xG and Sandefjord 1.03 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against Sandefjord attack 0.88 / defence 1.31, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 57% | Draw 22% | Sandefjord 20%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 52%, Sandefjord 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandefjord's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.