ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Molde at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Molde — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Molde in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Molde have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for ODD Ballklubb.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2021, ended 0–5 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Molde in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 58% and Molde 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 64% | Molde 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.67 xG and Molde 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.056 / defence 1.187 | Molde attack 1.020 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.322. Data: 50 ODD Ballklubb games / 50 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 38% | Draw 27% | Molde 35%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Molde 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Molde (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Molde 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 38% | Draw 27% | Molde 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.67 / Molde 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.056 / def 1.187 | Molde attack 1.020 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Molde xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Molde kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 3 Molde.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Molde is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 38% chance of winning, Molde a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
Record (3 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 3W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Molde in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Molde (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (1.06) and Molde's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.64
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.27
1.60
Molde xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.60 for Molde, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 20W 9D 21L from 50 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 31W 7D 12L across 50 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 12W 4D 8L from 24 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 10W 5D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Molde's season.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.50 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Molde in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 9D 21L in their last 50 games (1.38 PPG), while Molde have gone 31W 7D 12L in their last 50 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Molde away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.67 PPG; Molde away: 1.46 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Molde in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Molde specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
8
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Molde have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-4 Molde.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 67%, Molde at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for ODD Ballklubb and 75% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 71% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 75% of Molde's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Molde tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Molde in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Molde cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat ODD Ballklubb 1-3 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.67 xG and Molde 1.60 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Molde outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.06 / defence 1.19 against Molde attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 38% | Draw 27% | Molde 35%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Molde win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 64%, Molde 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.