ODD Ballklubb 1-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Haugesund make the trip to Skagerak Arena to face ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
ODD Ballklubb have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Skagerak Arena, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.30 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Haugesund and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
ODD Ballklubb — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Haugesund — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 55% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 55% | Haugesund 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.67 xG and Haugesund 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.002 / defence 0.958 | Haugesund attack 0.927 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.820 / away 1.417. Data: 30 ODD Ballklubb games / 30 Haugesund games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 47% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 29%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Haugesund 3.45. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 60% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 47% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.67 / Haugesund 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.002 / def 0.958 | Haugesund attack 0.927 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.820 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Haugesund xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 47% chance of winning, Haugesund a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund?
Record (8 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 2W | Draws 4 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.00x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.93x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.15
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.93
1.26
Haugesund xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
5%
18.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.26 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, ODD Ballklubb have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 23W 14D 23L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 19W 14D 27L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.18 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, ODD Ballklubb have posted 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (15W 5D 10L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 6W 8D 16L from 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.27 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Haugesund away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.67 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Haugesund have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 0-4 on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Haugesund have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Haugesund 2-1 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 57%, Haugesund 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (ODD Ballklubb) and 50% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 47% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 50% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Haugesund tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat ODD Ballklubb 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat ODD Ballklubb 1-2 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.67 xG and Haugesund 1.26 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Haugesund attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 47% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 29%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 55%, Haugesund 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.38 PPG, Haugesund 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.