Molde 5-0 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Start encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Start travel to Aker Stadion to take on Molde. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 5 August 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aker Stadion, Molde have gone 5W 0D 0L this season (5 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Start — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start's away record: 0W 2D 3L from 5 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Molde are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Molde register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Start in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Molde, 0 for Start and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2020, ended 3–2 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Molde in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Start in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 67% versus Start 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 92% | Start 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.67 xG and Start 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.594 / defence 0.941 | Start attack 0.711 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.308. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.594 — their λ of 2.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Molde's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Molde games / 12 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 75% | Draw 15% | Start 10%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | Start 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Molde (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Molde 60% | Start 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 75% | Draw 15% | Start 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 55% | xG Molde 2.67 / Start 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.594 / def 0.941 | Start attack 0.711 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Molde (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.67
Molde xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Start xG
55%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Start kick off?
Molde vs Start kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 5 August 2020 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Start?
Molde 5 - 0 Start.
Where is Molde vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Start part of?
Molde vs Start is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 75% chance of winning, Start a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Start?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Molde and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Start?
Record (1 meetings): Molde 1W | Draws 0 | Start 0W.
What form are Molde and Start in?
Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Start (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.59x the league average against Start's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.2%), 2-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.55
10%
10.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.67
Molde xG
Total xG
3.55
0.88
Start xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.55
15%
Draw
10.48
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
7%
14.51
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
1%
152.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Molde and Start expected to score?
The model projects 2.67 expected goals for Molde and 0.88 for Start, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Molde's recent record stands at 9W 1D 2L from 12 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Start, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 5L across 12 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 1.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Start heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Molde have managed 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.33 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Start's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Molde are averaging 2.83 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.08 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Start in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 9W 1D 2L in their last 12 games (2.33 PPG), while Start have gone 1W 6D 5L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Start away?
Molde's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 3.00 PPG; Start away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Molde or Start been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Start in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Molde and Start runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2020, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Molde
1
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Start?
From 3 meetings on record, Molde have won 2, Start have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Start last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Start 1-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Start?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 60%, Start 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Molde and 40% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Start in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Start?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Molde's games and 60% of Start's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Molde's matches and 40% of Start's.
Do Molde and Start tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Start in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Start.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Start 5-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.67 xG and Start 0.88 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Molde beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Start landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.59 / defence 0.94 against Start attack 0.71 / defence 1.29, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 75% | Draw 15% | Start 10%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 92%, Start 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Start's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Molde (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.20 average — above their attacking norm. Start (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.