Molde vs Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stabaek make the trip to Aker Stadion to face Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Molde have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Molde have posted 7W 1D 2L at Aker Stadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stabaek (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Stabaek have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Molde's favour (2.50 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Molde 2W, Stabaek 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2020, ended 3–0 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 70% and Stabaek 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 90% | Stabaek 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.04 xG and Stabaek 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.151 / defence 0.936 | Stabaek attack 1.037 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Molde games / 30 Stabaek games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Molde 53% | Draw 23% | Stabaek 23%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Stabaek 4.35. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Molde 60% | Stabaek 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 53% | Draw 23% | Stabaek 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Molde 2.04 / Stabaek 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.151 / def 0.936 | Stabaek attack 1.037 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Molde (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Stabaek xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Stabaek kick off?
Molde vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 2 May 2021 at Aker Stadion.
Where is Molde vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Stabaek part of?
Molde vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 53% chance of winning, Stabaek a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Molde and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Stabaek?
Record (2 meetings): Molde 2W | Draws 0 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are Molde and Stabaek in?
Molde (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.15x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (1.04x) against Molde's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.27
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Molde xG
Total xG
3.35
1.31
Stabaek xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
3%
32.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Molde and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Molde and 1.31 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Molde have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 20W 2D 8L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Stabaek's form line: 9W 12D 9L from 30 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.47 PPG from 15 outings (12W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 4W 6D 5L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.37 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Stabaek
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 20W 2D 8L in their last 30 games (2.07 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Stabaek away?
Molde's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.47 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Molde or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stabaek in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 28 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Molde
0
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Molde have won 5, Stabaek have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Stabaek?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 60%, Stabaek 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Molde and 67% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stabaek in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Molde's games and 60% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Molde's matches and 67% of Stabaek's.
Do Molde and Stabaek tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Molde's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.04 xG and Stabaek 1.31 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Molde fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Stabaek attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 53% | Draw 23% | Stabaek 23%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 90%, Stabaek 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.