Molde 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Molde face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Haugesund travel to Aker Stadion to take on Molde. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 June 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have gone 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Molde at Aker Stadion this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Haugesund — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Molde are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.40 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Molde hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Haugesund, with 0 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Molde winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Molde and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Molde trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Haugesund trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 57% versus Haugesund 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 70% | Haugesund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.17 xG and Haugesund 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.285 / defence 1.002 | Haugesund attack 0.750 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.273. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Molde games / 40 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 64% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 14%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Haugesund 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Molde (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Molde 60% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 64% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Molde 2.17 / Haugesund 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.285 / def 1.002 | Haugesund attack 0.750 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Molde (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Molde xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Haugesund xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Haugesund kick off?
Molde vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 June 2023 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Molde 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Molde vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Haugesund part of?
Molde vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 64% chance of winning, Haugesund a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Molde and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
Record (4 meetings): Molde 4W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Molde and Haugesund in?
Molde (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.28x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.66
14%
6.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Molde xG
Total xG
3.13
0.96
Haugesund xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
6.91
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
11%
8.77
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
2%
60.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Molde and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Molde and 0.96 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Molde have picked up 2.30 PPG on a 43W 9D 8L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 19W 16D 25L from 60 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.40 PPG from 30 outings (23W 3D 4L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 5W 9D 16L from 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.47 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund in 60%.
Defensively: Molde have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 43W 9D 8L in their last 60 games (2.30 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Haugesund away?
Molde's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.40 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Molde or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Haugesund in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Molde have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Molde
0
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 10, Haugesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Haugesund?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 57%, Haugesund 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Molde and 53% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Haugesund in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Molde's games and 57% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Molde's matches and 53% of Haugesund's.
Do Molde and Haugesund tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 1-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.17 xG and Haugesund 0.96 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Molde fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.28 / defence 1.00 against Haugesund attack 0.75 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 64% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 14%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 70%, Haugesund 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.