Mjondalen 2-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjondalen host Bodo/Glimt at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 2W 2D 4L from 8 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's home record at Consto Arena: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Eliteserien appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 8W 0D 0L from 8 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 4W 0D 0L from 4 away games — 3.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 4.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bodo/Glimt — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Mjondalen trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjondalen 62% and Bodo/Glimt 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Mjondalen 50% | Bodo/Glimt 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 0.98 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.725 / defence 1.037 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.680 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.447. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.680 — the away xG of 2.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Mjondalen games / 8 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 13% | Draw 17% | Bodo/Glimt 71%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 7.69 | Draw 5.88 | Bodo/Glimt 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mjondalen 33% | Bodo/Glimt 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 13% | Draw 17% | Bodo/Glimt 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 58% | xG Mjondalen 0.98 / Bodo/Glimt 2.52 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.725 / def 1.037 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.680 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
2.52
Bodo/Glimt xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 July 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Mjondalen 2 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 13% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 71% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.12 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-0D-0L in 8 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 2.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
13%
7.88
17%
6.04
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
3.51
2.52
Bodo/Glimt xG
7.88
13%
Home win
6.04
17%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
8%
12.45
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
1%
98.14
26%
3.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Mjondalen and 2.52 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 2D 4L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 8W 0D 0L from 8 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 4.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjondalen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 0D 0L in their last 8 (3.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.00 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 3.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
0
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2021, when Mjondalen 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 33%, Bodo/Glimt 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Mjondalen and 100% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bodo/Glimt in 33%; Mjondalen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Bodo/Glimt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Mjondalen's matches and 100% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Mjondalen and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Mjondalen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Mjondalen 2-3 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 0.98 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.52 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Mjondalen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.72 / defence 1.04 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.68 / defence 1.12, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 13% | Draw 17% | Bodo/Glimt 71%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 50%, Bodo/Glimt 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Mjondalen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 3 against a 4.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.