Kristiansund BK 0-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kristiansund BK face Stromsgodset.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stromsgodset make the trip to Nordmøre stadion to face Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Kristiansund BK (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kristiansund BK at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stromsgodset's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stromsgodset away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 0.90 for Stromsgodset. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Kristiansund BK, 2 for Stromsgodset and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Kristiansund BK 2–2 Stromsgodset — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 54% versus Stromsgodset 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 50% | Stromsgodset 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.59 xG and Stromsgodset 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.879 / defence 1.253 | Stromsgodset attack 0.903 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.231. Kristiansund BK's defence rating of 1.253 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stromsgodset's projected output up. Data: built from Kristiansund BK's last 24 games and Stromsgodset's last 54.
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 42% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 34%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.37 | Draw 4.13 | Stromsgodset 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kristiansund BK's last 10 home games and Stromsgodset's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kristiansund BK 80% (last 10 home games) | Stromsgodset 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 25 | Venue: Nordmøre stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 42% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Kristiansund BK 1.59 / Stromsgodset 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.879 / def 1.253 | Stromsgodset attack 0.903 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Stromsgodset xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset FAQs
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Nordmøre stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset?
Kristiansund BK 0 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Nordmøre stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 25) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 42% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Stromsgodset will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kristiansund BK's attack rating (0.88) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.90x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from Kristiansund BK's last 24 games and Stromsgodset's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.13
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.99
1.39
Stromsgodset xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
7%
14.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.39 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 8D 10L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Stromsgodset sit at 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.31 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 5W 5D 3L across their last 13 home games, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Stromsgodset have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 13 away games (4W 3D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.31 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
Kristiansund BK (Home) vs Stromsgodset (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset Form FAQs
What form are Kristiansund BK and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 9W 7D 10L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Stromsgodset away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.54 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Kristiansund BK and Stromsgodset, the earliest from July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 9 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Kristiansund BK have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won Kristiansund BK 0-3 Stromsgodset on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Stromsgodset?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kristiansund BK have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Stromsgodset last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 November 2025: Kristiansund BK 2-1 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Stromsgodset?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 69%, Stromsgodset 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Kristiansund BK and 62% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Stromsgodset Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kristiansund BK and Stromsgodset matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Kristiansund BK's games and 54% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kristiansund BK and Stromsgodset matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 62% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Stromsgodset matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Kristiansund BK's recent matches and 77% of Stromsgodset's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kristiansund BK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nordmøre stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Kristiansund BK and Stromsgodset drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.59 xG and Stromsgodset 1.39 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.88 / defence 1.25 against Stromsgodset attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 42% | Draw 24% | Stromsgodset 34%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 50%, Stromsgodset 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.23 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.