Kristiansund BK 2-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kristiansund BK face Lillestrom.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Kristiansund BK welcome Lillestrom to Aker Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 4 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kristiansund BK stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kristiansund BK at home: 3W 3D 2L from their last 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lillestrom's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Kristiansund BK) versus 1.30 (Lillestrom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Kristiansund BK, 1 for Lillestrom and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2024, ended Kristiansund BK 3–2 Lillestrom — a Kristiansund BK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kristiansund BK trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lillestrom trading profile (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 61% versus Lillestrom 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 44% | Lillestrom 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.62 xG and Lillestrom 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.157 / defence 1.080 | Lillestrom attack 0.928 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.371. Data: built from Kristiansund BK's last 16 games and Lillestrom's last 45.
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 43% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 32%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.33 | Draw 4.01 | Lillestrom 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kristiansund BK's last 8 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kristiansund BK 75% (last 8 home games) | Lillestrom 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 17 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 43% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Kristiansund BK 1.62 / Lillestrom 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.157 / def 1.080 | Lillestrom attack 0.928 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Lillestrom xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Kristiansund BK 2 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 17) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 43% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 1.16x the league average against Lillestrom's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lillestrom's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kristiansund BK's last 16 games and Lillestrom's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
43%
2.33
25%
4.01
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.99
1.37
Lillestrom xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
6%
15.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.37 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 6D 7L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (6W 3D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 1.17 PPG, Lillestrom on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across their last 8 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 8 away games (4W 0D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.33 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
Kristiansund BK (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 6W 3D 9L in their last 18 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Lillestrom away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.50 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 20 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Kristiansund BK have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Lillestrom specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Kristiansund BK
2
Draws
1
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Kristiansund BK have won 4, Lillestrom have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 May 2026: Lillestrom 1-2 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 75%, Lillestrom 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kristiansund BK) and 50% (Lillestrom).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kristiansund BK vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Kristiansund BK's games and 38% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kristiansund BK's recent games and 50% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kristiansund BK and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Kristiansund BK's recent matches and 62% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kristiansund BK edge out Lillestrom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Lillestrom 2-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.62 xG and Lillestrom 1.37 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.16 / defence 1.08 against Lillestrom attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 43% | Draw 25% | Lillestrom 32%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 44%, Lillestrom 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.17 PPG, Lillestrom 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.