Kristiansund BK 2-2 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Ham-Kam travel to Kristiansund Stadion to take on Kristiansund BK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.02 xG and Ham-Kam 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.066 / defence 1.190 | Ham-Kam attack 0.845 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.259. Data: 33 Kristiansund BK games / 3 Ham-Kam games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 55% | Draw 21% | Ham-Kam 24%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Ham-Kam 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kristiansund BK are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 55% | Draw 21% | Ham-Kam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.02 / Ham-Kam 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.066 / def 1.190 | Ham-Kam attack 0.845 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Ham-Kam xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Kristiansund BK 2 - 2 Ham-Kam.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 55% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Kristiansund BK home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
55%
1.82
21%
4.66
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.29
1.27
Ham-Kam xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
3%
31.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.27 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Pre-Season
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
From 7 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam finished level at 2-2 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.02 xG and Ham-Kam 1.27 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.07 / defence 1.19 against Ham-Kam attack 0.84 / defence 1.19, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 55% | Draw 21% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.