KFUM Oslo 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KFUM Oslo at 40%, yet in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF make the trip to KFUM Arena to face KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Monday 21 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
KFUM Oslo (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, KFUM Oslo have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from KFUM Oslo's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) — KFUM Oslo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for KFUM Oslo, 1 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended KFUM Oslo 1–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF — a Sarpsborg 08 FF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KFUM Oslo 57% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 43% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.41 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 1.066 / defence 0.980 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.122 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.186. Data: built from KFUM Oslo's last 32 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 40% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 35%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.52 | Draw 3.89 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KFUM Oslo at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sarpsborg 08 FF (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (KFUM Oslo's last 10 home games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KFUM Oslo 60% (last 10 home games) | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (KFUM Oslo 32 games, Sarpsborg 08 FF 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 3 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Monday 21 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 40% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG KFUM Oslo 1.41 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 1.066 / def 0.980 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.122 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF FAQs
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 21 April 2025 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 3) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 40% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (1.07) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.12x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from KFUM Oslo's last 32 games and Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.89
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.72
1.30
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
8%
11.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.30 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KFUM Oslo's recent record stands at 9W 10D 11L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 13L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.23 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KFUM Oslo have managed 2W 7D 6L from their last 15 home games — 0.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across their last 15 away games, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.43 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
KFUM Oslo (Home) vs Sarpsborg 08 FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Form FAQs
What form are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 0.87 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.47 PPG.
Have KFUM Oslo or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
KFUM Oslo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: KFUM Oslo have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
KFUM Oslo
0
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, KFUM Oslo have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-3 KFUM Oslo.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KFUM Oslo see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for KFUM Oslo, 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (KFUM Oslo) and 73% (Sarpsborg 08 FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; KFUM Oslo have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KFUM Oslo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of KFUM Oslo's games and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of KFUM Oslo's matches and 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do KFUM Oslo and Sarpsborg 08 FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 47% of KFUM Oslo's recent matches and 80% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over KFUM Oslo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat KFUM Oslo 1-3 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.41 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 40% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 35%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 43%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KFUM Oslo 1.23 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.