Haugesund 2-0 Moss – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Moss fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Sparebank Arena plays host to Haugesund versus Moss in Eliteserien, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Sunday 8 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Sparebank Arena: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Moss have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Eliteserien outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Moss have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Haugesund, 1.00 for Moss — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Haugesund have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Moss in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Haugesund 0W, Moss 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.29 xG and Moss 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.765 / defence 0.901 | Moss attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.284. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Haugesund games / 0 Moss games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 44% | Draw 28% | Moss 28%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Moss 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 0.8 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Moss | Competition: Eliteserien, Relegation Round | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 44% | Draw 28% | Moss 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Haugesund 1.29 / Moss 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.765 / def 0.901 | Moss attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Moss xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Moss kick off?
Haugesund vs Moss kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Moss?
Haugesund 2 - 0 Moss.
Where is Haugesund vs Moss being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Moss part of?
Haugesund vs Moss is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Moss?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 44% chance of winning, Moss a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Moss?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Haugesund and Moss will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Moss have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Moss?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 1 | Moss 0W.
What form are Haugesund and Moss in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Moss (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Moss's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Moss's attack (0.85x) against Haugesund's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.56
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.28
0.98
Moss xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Moss?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Moss expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.98 for Moss, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Moss?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Haugesund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Moss's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Moss, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Haugesund against 1.00 for Moss. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Moss are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Moss in 0%.
Defensively: Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Moss in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Early Season
Moss
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Moss in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Moss have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Haugesund or Moss been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Moss in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Haugesund
1
Draws
0
Moss
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Moss?
From 2 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Moss have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Moss last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Haugesund 2-0 Moss.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Moss?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Moss away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Moss?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Haugesund's recent matches and 0% of Moss's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Moss usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Haugesund's recent games and 0% of Moss's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Moss tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Moss in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Moss.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Moss 2-0 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Relegation Round, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.29 xG and Moss 0.98 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Moss landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.77 / defence 0.90 against Moss attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 44% | Draw 28% | Moss 28%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 0%, Moss 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.00 PPG, Moss 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Moss shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.