Haugesund vs Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 25 as Haugesund welcome Molde to Haugesund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Haugesund Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Molde have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Molde — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 0, Molde 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 9.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 4–5 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 9.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Molde trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 55% versus Molde 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 63% | Molde 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.42 xG and Molde 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.936 / defence 1.095 | Molde attack 1.134 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.303. Data: 51 Haugesund games / 51 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 31% | Draw 28% | Molde 40%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Molde 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 50% | Molde 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 31% | Draw 28% | Molde 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Haugesund 1.42 / Molde 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.936 / def 1.095 | Molde attack 1.134 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Molde (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Molde xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Molde kick off?
Haugesund vs Molde kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Molde part of?
Haugesund vs Molde is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 31% chance of winning, Molde a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Haugesund and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Molde in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Molde (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Molde's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
31%
3.19
28%
3.52
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.03
1.62
Molde xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
6%
16.11
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.62 for Molde, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 10D 22L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Molde sit at 2.02 PPG from 51 outings (32W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haugesund's home form reads 13W 4D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.52 points per game from 25 outings (11W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Molde's season.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.51 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Molde in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 19W 10D 22L in their last 51 games (1.31 PPG), while Molde have gone 32W 7D 12L in their last 51 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Molde away?
Haugesund's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.72 PPG; Molde away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Molde specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
0
Draws
10
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Molde have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 52%, Molde 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Haugesund and 76% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Haugesund's games and 72% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Haugesund's matches and 76% of Molde's.
Do Haugesund and Molde tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Molde in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Haugesund and Molde drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.42 xG and Molde 1.62 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Molde landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Molde attack 1.13 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 31% | Draw 28% | Molde 40%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 63%, Molde 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.