Haugesund 0-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KFUM Oslo at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Haugesund face KFUM Oslo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
KFUM Oslo travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund in Eliteserien (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Haugesund stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Haugesund have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.06 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.919 / defence 1.232 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.929 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.374. Haugesund's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing KFUM Oslo's projected output up. Data: built from Haugesund's last 35 games and KFUM Oslo's last 5.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 26% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 49%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.92 | Draw 3.97 | KFUM Oslo 2.03. KFUM Oslo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KFUM Oslo as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 6 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 26% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Haugesund 1.06 / KFUM Oslo 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.919 / def 1.232 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.929 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.57
KFUM Oslo xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo FAQs
What time does Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Haugesund 0 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 6) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 26% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Haugesund and KFUM Oslo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against KFUM Oslo's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, KFUM Oslo's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haugesund's last 35 games and KFUM Oslo's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
26%
3.92
25%
3.97
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.63
1.57
KFUM Oslo xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
5%
18.88
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.57 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Haugesund (Home) vs KFUM Oslo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haugesund
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 2 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Nov 2025, when Haugesund won KFUM Oslo 1-4 Haugesund.
Haugesund's record when hosting KFUM Oslo specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Haugesund
1
Draws
2
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and KFUM Oslo?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Haugesund have won 1, KFUM Oslo have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Haugesund and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2025: KFUM Oslo 1-4 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and KFUM Oslo?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as KFUM Oslo edge out Haugesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Haugesund 0-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.06 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.57 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 26% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 49%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.