Haugesund 3-2 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Haugesund at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Ham-Kam encounter.

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Match Analysis

Haugesund host Ham-Kam at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Haugesund at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Haugesund are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 0, Ham-Kam 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Ham-Kam winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Haugesund trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Ham-Kam trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 63% and Ham-Kam 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 57% | Ham-Kam 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.69 xG and Ham-Kam 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.999 / defence 1.025 | Ham-Kam attack 0.977 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.078. Data: 31 Haugesund games / 31 Ham-Kam games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Haugesund 52% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 24%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 4.17. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 80% | Ham-Kam 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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